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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) | The Guardian

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Findings should not be seen as taking pressure off need to tackle climate change, authors warn

Earth’s surface will almost certainly not warm up four or five degrees Celsius by 2100, according to a study which, if correct, voids worst-case UN climate change predictions.

A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet’s temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, researchers said in the report, published in the journal Nature.

Related: Japan breakthrough could improve weather warnings and save lives

Related: Ambitious 1.5C Paris climate target is still possible, new analysis shows

Related: Climate change: ‘human fingerprint’ found on global extreme weather

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Author: Agence France-Presse
Posted: January 18, 2018, 3:08 am

Republican climate science denial reared its ugly head at Bridenstine’s congressional hearing

Unlike past Nasa administrators, Trump nominee Jim Bridenstine doesn’t have a scientific background. He’s a Republican Congressman from Oklahoma and former Navy pilot. He also has a history of denying basic climate science. That’s concerning because Nasa does some of the world’s best climate science research, and Bridenstine previously introduced legislation that would eliminate Earth science from Nasa’s mission statement.

At his Senate hearing last week, Bridenstine tried to remake his image. He said that his previous science-denying, politically polarizing comments came with the job of being a Republican congressman, and that as Nasa administrator he would be apolitical. A kinder, gentler Bridenstine. But while he softened his climate science denial, his proclaimed new views remain in line with the rest of the harshly anti-science Trump administration. That’s very troubling.

Many lines of evidence demonstrate that it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. Over the last century, there are no convincing alternative explanations supported by the extent of the observational evidence. Solar output changes and internal natural variability can only contribute marginally to the observed changes in climate over the last century, and we find no convincing evidence for natural cycles in the observational record that could explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)

Lolz. Newsflash.

New report, same as the old report. Climate change projections remain unchanged.

It’s going to depend on a lot of factors and we’re still learning more about that every day. In some years you could say absolutely, in other years, during sun cycles and other things, there are other contributing factors that would have maybe more of an impact.

Happy Pi Day! What's the 97% math all about? Learn here: #PiDay #ClimateChange

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Author: Dana Nuccitelli
Posted: November 6, 2017, 11:00 am

As usual, conservative media outlets distorted a climate science paper to advance the denialist agenda

Last week, Nature Geoscience published a study suggesting that we have a bigger remaining carbon budget than previously thought to keep global warming below the 1.5°C aggressive Paris climate target. Many scientists quickly commented that the paper’s conclusion was based on some questionable assumptions, and this single study shouldn’t be blindly accepted as gospel truth.

Conservative media outlets did even worse than that. They took one part of the paper’s analysis out of context and grossly distorted its conclusions to advance their anti-climate agenda.

Headline claim from carbon budget paper that warming is 0.9ºC from pre-I is unsupported. Using globally complete estimates ~1.2ºC (in 2015)

We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models. We haven’t seen that in the observations.

Claim of a substantial gap between model projections for global temperature & observations is not true (updated with 2017 estimate):

I think some press reporting is misleading as our paper did not assess climate impacts or climate model performance. Rather, our paper confirms the need for much increased urgent action from around the world if society stands a chance of limiting warming to 1.5C.

the IPCC specifically assessed that temperatures in the 2020s would be 0.9-1.3C warmer than pre-industrial, the lower end of which is already looking conservative. Anyone who had troubled to read our paper would have found this “IPCC AR5 Ch11 projection” helpfully labelled on two of our figures, and clearly consistent with our new results.

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Author: Dana Nuccitelli
Posted: September 27, 2017, 10:00 am

The odds of 2014, 2015, and 2016 naturally being as hot as they were are about the same as the odds you’ll be struck by lightning this year

2014, 2015, and 2016 each broke the global temperature record. A new study led by climate scientist Michael Mann just published in Geophysical Research Letters used climate model simulations to examine the odds that these records would have been set in a world with and without human-caused global warming. In model simulations without a human climate influence, the authors concluded:

Many lines of evidence demonstrate that it is extremely likely [95%–100% confidence] that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century … the likely range of the human contribution to the global mean temperature increase over the period 1951–2000 is … 92%–123%.

I would not agree that [CO2] is a primary contributor to the global warming that we see.

.@BBCr4today airs false statements on climate by Lord Lawson in the name of balance. Scientists fact-check

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Author: Dana Nuccitelli
Posted: August 11, 2017, 10:00 am

A relatively small number of fossil fuel producers and their investors could hold the key to tackling climate change

Just 100 companies have been the source of more than 70% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions since 1988, according to a new report.

The Carbon Majors Report (pdf) “pinpoints how a relatively small set of fossil fuel producers may hold the key to systemic change on carbon emissions,” says Pedro Faria, technical director at environmental non-profit CDP, which published the report in collaboration with the Climate Accountability Institute.

Related: Hopes of mild climate change dashed by new research

Related: G20 public finance for fossil fuels 'is four times more than renewables'

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Author: Tess Riley
Posted: July 10, 2017, 5:26 am

The research is clear – humans are responsible for all the global warming since 1950

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report – which summarizes the latest and greatest climate science research – was quite clear that humans are responsible for global warming:

It is extremely likely [95 percent confidence] more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together … The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period … The contribution from natural forcings is likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C, and from internal variability is likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C.

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Author: Dana Nuccitelli
Posted: January 30, 2017, 11:00 am

The President-elect’s nominees to key positions deny the existence, threats, and solutions to human-caused global warming

When speaking about climate change, President-elect Trump has flip-flopped between acceptance and denial, which suggests that he hasn’t put much thought into one of humanity’s greatest threats. However, what his administration does is far more important than what he thinks. Unfortunately, Trump has nominated individuals to several critical climate leadership positions who reject inconvenient scientific and economic evidence.

our ability to project with any degree of certainty the future is continuing to be very limited … our examination about the models are that they’re not competent.

What if everything we do, it turns out our models are lousy, and we don’t get the effects we predict?

I would not support putting a carbon tax in place today because I think we still have a lot of gains to be made through technology and other less intrusive policies on the economy which are showing results.

Your choice on Day 1 is clear. Leadership or denial. If it’s the former, you’ll have plenty of Americans willing to help you. If it’s the latter, you’ll have millions of powerful voices allied against you. Please choose wisely.

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Author: Dana Nuccitelli
Posted: December 27, 2016, 11:00 am

Sabine Fuss and Jan Minx: The world’s governments have agreed to ambitious climate goals. But if we are to hit our new targets, scientists and innovators need to move quickly to close the gap between hope and reality.

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change has been a big surprise to many. All countries agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, keeping the world “well below” 2°C or even at 1.5°C of warming. By including the 1.5°C target, the Agreement has become more ambitious than many observers had expected. And the party is still not over: against the odds, countries required less than a year for the Agreement to enter into force. This seems a triumph for climate diplomacy.

However, there is to date not a good understanding of how the world could swiftly enter into a period of substantial and sustained emission reductions. Therefore, the adoption of the 1.5°C target went along with an invitation to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to map out the state of the scientific knowledge on the 1.5°C goal in a report due in autumn 2018. A scoping meeting in Geneva in August of this year convened more than 60 experts and government officials to determine the outline of such an assessment.

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Author: Sabine Fuss and Jan Minx
Posted: October 17, 2016, 8:00 am

Only 48% of Americans – and 15% of conservative Republicans – realize that humans are causing global warming

Climate scientists have 95% confidence that humans are the main cause of global warming over the past six decades. Their best estimate attributes 100% of global warming since 1950 to human activities. 90 to 100% of climate scientists and their research agree on this. Human-caused global warming is as settled as science gets.

Yet most Americans don’t realize it. Moreover, the more conservative a person’s ideology, the less likely they are to accept this scientific reality or to trust the scientific experts.

Loved Dr. @KHayhoe's message that #climatechange doesn't have to divide us – we can unite around shared values to #ActOnClimate. #SXSL

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Author: Dana Nuccitelli
Posted: October 6, 2016, 10:00 am

Grim backdrop to vital global emissions talks as new analysis shows 1.5C limit on warming is close to being broken

Leading climate scientists have warned that the Earth is perilously close to breaking through a 1.5C upper limit for global warming, only eight months after the target was set.

The decision to try to limit warming to 1.5C, measured in relation to pre-industrial temperatures, was the headline outcome of the Paris climate negotiations last December. The talks were hailed as a major success by scientists and campaigners, who claimed that, by setting the target, desertification, heatwaves, widespread flooding and other global warming impacts could be avoided.

Related: Environmental records shattered as climate change 'plays out before us'

Related: Climate models are accurately predicting ocean and global warming | John Abraham

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Author: Robin McKie Observer science editor
Posted: August 6, 2016, 9:01 pm

Two more women file claims against Rajendra Pachauri after 29-year-old colleague from Energy and Resources Institute speaks out

A court in Delhi has ruled that Rajendra Pachauri, the former chairman of a Nobel prize-winning UN panel on climate change, will stand trial on charges of stalking and sexual harassment of a former employee.

A 29-year-old former employee of The Energy and Resources Institute (Teri), based in the Indian capital, filed a police report against Pachauri last year. She said Pachauri, who led the organisation, had made inappropriate advances soon after she joined in 2013.

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Author: Vidhi Doshi
Posted: May 14, 2016, 4:07 pm

Hoesung Lee, head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, voices hope in battle against 2C increase in warming but warns of ‘phenomenal’ costs

The head of the United Nations climate science panel has declared it is still possible to avoid a dangerous 2C increase in global warming – despite more than a dozen record hot years since 2000. But the costs could be “phenomenal”, he said.

In an interview with the Guardian, Hoesung Lee, the leader of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), defied the bleak outlook of climate scientists who warn the world is hurtling to a 2C rise far faster than anticipated.

Related: See Earth’s temperature spiral toward 2C rise - graphic

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Author: Suzanne Goldenberg
Posted: May 11, 2016, 11:00 am

Special UN report will offer comprehensive assessment of impacts of a 1.5C rise in global warming on sea level, coral bleaching and biodiversity

Scientists from around the world will contribute to a major UN report on how global temperatures can be held to a rise of 1.5C and what the impact might be on sea level rises, the bleaching of corals and biodiversity.

The special report, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will assess all the available peer-reviewed science along with other special reports on how land and oceans are being affected by climate change. These will look at the melting of ice in polar and mountain regions, as well as the impact of climate change on cities and food supplies.

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Author: John Vidal
Posted: April 14, 2016, 1:08 pm

Former employee of The Energy and Resources Institute alleges she was ‘scared of Pachauri’s motives’

A third woman has claimed she was sexually harassed by the former head of the UN climate change panel, Rajendra Pachauri, who is charged with sexually harassing, stalking and intimidating a female employee.

The woman, who cannot be named for legal reasons, said on Thursday she had decided to make a public statement after reading an article in the Observer in which Pachauri denied the allegations against him claiming his email account had been hacked and the claims were a conspiracy to defame him.

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Author: Vidhi Doshi in Mumbai
Posted: March 31, 2016, 2:39 pm

Former IPCC boss says climate change sceptics are behind allegations he harassed female colleague

It was the crowning glory of a distinguished career when, in December 2007, the head of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the charismatic Rajendra Pachauri, collected the Nobel peace prize in Oslo on behalf of the organisation..

Elected by governments five years before to chair the small independent organisation charged with informing them on the state of global climate science, Pachauri had seen off the Bush administration, which loathed the IPCC for not taking its line on climate change. He had weathered vicious attacks by sceptics and steered the IPCC to worldwide acclaim.

‘My client was not flirting with him. At no point did she encourage him or give him reason to demand sexual favours’

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Author: John Vidal
Posted: March 26, 2016, 10:00 pm

Rajendra Pachauri accused of stalking, intimidating and sexually harassing researcher at Delhi-based thinktank

A former chair of a UN panel of climate scientists has been charged with stalking, intimidating and sexually harassing a woman who worked at a thinktank he headed for more than 30 years.

Rajendra Pachauri, 75, was accused in February last year of sexual harassment by a researcher working at Delhi-based The Energy and Resources Institute (Teri) where Pachauri was director general.

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Author: Reuters in New Delhi
Posted: March 1, 2016, 5:24 pm

Potsdam-based economist Ottmar Edenhofer on the piecemeal nature of climate policy, in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

How well can the new head of the IPCC, Hoesung Lee, manage the huge reforms that you and others have publicly asked for?

We’ve put forward suggestions for a feasible programme of reform, but we will see how Hoesung Lee will make this his own. There’s little room for manoeuvre. In a meeting in February in Nairobi, governments decided that they’d prefer to see the status quo upheld. Lee has to be very fast and vigorous if he wants reforms. However he is very dependent upon the IPCC panel agreeing, since only the governments are entitled to a vote and thus get to have a say.

Related: UN climate science panel elects first new leader in 13 years

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Author: Joachim Müller-Jung for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, part of the Climate Publishers Network
Posted: October 26, 2015, 1:08 pm

An economist, whose brother is a former prime minister of South Korea, is the IPCC’s new chief, reports the Straits Times

Although one of the world’s top carbon emitters, South Korea has also become a leader in pursuing climate-resilient economic development. Its transformation was witnessed - and partially pioneered - by Dr Hoesung Lee, an economist specialising in climate change.

The 69-year-old now has the world’s climate blueprint on his plate, having been elected as the fourth and latest chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations body that assesses climate research and issues.

Related: UN climate science panel elects first new leader in 13 years

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Author: Chang May Choon for The Straits Times, part of the Climate Publishers Network
Posted: October 21, 2015, 3:45 pm

Hoesung Lee says change of tack for UN climate science body is needed to galvanise global action on emissions reductions

The new leader of the world’s most authoritative climate science body has declared it’s time researchers shifted away from tracking the impacts of climate change - and focused instead on finding solutions.

In his first interview since taking charge of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Hoesung Lee announced a major change in direction for the organisation’s exhaustive science reports.

Related: Everything you need to know about the Paris climate summit and UN talks

Related: How much fossil fuel has been used in your lifetime?

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Author: Suzanne Goldenberg
Posted: October 12, 2015, 11:21 am

In a vote Tuesday, Hoesung Lee was chosen to replace Rajendra Pachauri, who was forced to step down after being accused of sexual harassment

The United Nations Nobel-winning climate science panel – the ultimate authority tracking the extent of global warming and its consequences for humanity – has a new leader after 13 years.

In a vote in Dubrovnik on Tuesday, governments chose Hoesung Lee, the long-serving vice-chair of the climate panel, to replace Rajendra Pachauri, who was forced to step down after being accused of sexual harassment by a female employee at his research institute in India.

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Author: Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent
Posted: October 6, 2015, 9:20 pm

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